DEBORAH MARCHINI, CNN ANCHOR: When it comes to consumer spending and its role in propping the economy, that could get a boost from a tax cut that is soon to be paid out in the form of a rebate to U.S. tax payers. We heard Paul O'Neill, the Treasury Secretary, say that's likely to keep the United States out of the session, in some remarks over the weekend. Rejoining me is David Jones, chief economist at Aubrey G. Lanston. And what do you think? Is Mr. O'Neill right, or are you more siding with the National Bureau of Economic Research here, on the prospects for recession?</s>DAVID JONES, AUBREY G. LANSTON: Well, Deborah, I think, technically, we're going to stay out of a recession, but we're going to be growing at only about 1 percent per year, starting in the fourth quarter of last year. My forecast would be going through the third quarter of this year when our speed limit is maybe 3.5 percent to 4 percent. So even though we technically may stay out of a recession -- that is, two consecutive quarters of negative growth -- it's going to feel like a recession, and that's where this combination of these aggressive Fed rate cuts and the tax cut, Deborah, may be the only thing that keeps us, at least, out of a technical recession.</s>MARCHINI: Briefly, 1 percent growth is slower than you need to keep the unemployment rate steady. Unemployment goes up?</s>JONES: It goes up, definitely. I think by September we could be at 5 percent -- we're at 4.4 percent now -- and maybe before this is all over at 5.5 percent. That's going to be critical, because that consumer we hope will keep spending, although they're going to me more and more worried about their job situation.</s>MARCHINI: No kidding. All right, David Jones of Aubrey G. Lanston, thanks.</s>JONES: Thank you.
Aubrey G. Lanston Economist: United States May Technically Avoid Recession, but What Happens Will Be Much Like One